Curse

moriz · Apr 09, 2009, 11:32 PM // 23:32

there's a particularly good lolcat picture about economic forecasters. it nicely illustrates how funny i find your economic predictions are. unfortunately, i can't find it anymore

oh wait, here it is:

Michman · Apr 10, 2009, 01:59 AM // 01:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by wu is me

O
M
Fvking
G
!!!

Ok that clearly demonstrates your absolute, COMPLETE lack of understanding of the concept of Supply and Demand.

Well, all the points are on the table, and mr Martin's already done a good job of explaining things, I see no point in discussing with a few people who don't understand economics.

Since you bring up the issue of supply and demand perhaps we can use Martin's figures to demonstrate why XTH shouldn't be eliminated. When the z-chest appeared in Dec 2007 (actually it appeared in Nov and was free but it was quickly removed) z-keys were selling for 2k...1.8k even 1.5k occasionally. Zkeys were making PVPer's wealthy and everyone loved it. Then in May 2008 the Zaishen title was introduced and z-keys rose to 5k although Martin says 7k which I supposed a few foolish people might have overpaid (wouldn't be the first time) but the average was 5k. Here comes your supply/demand part. Since Pvper's according to Martin only supply 67,000+ keys per month they weren't meeting demand and XTH predictions were introduced to allow every person in GW equal access to keys. As I'm sure you and I both know every person in GW doesn't use XTH. Even with all the people that do use XTH the price of zkeys has remained reasonably stable considering all the exaggerated numbers of zkeys that people (Martin included) are claiming are being created. If you go to Great Temple of Baltazar on update Thursday or Black Friday the number of keys being sold will probably outweigh demand and it's reflected in the offers...WTS 4.5k, WTS 4.2K, vs WTB 4K, WTB 3.8K. But while we see a downward drift in prices on those two days the rest of the month zkeys spiral back upward. The zkey market isn't crashing nor is it likely to anywhere in the forseeable future. PVPer's that were at one time getting wealthy with zkeys at 2k have increased their mechinism of profit by 100-150%.
That doesn't even take into account the extra zkeys they make with their own XTH predictions, which since they have inside knowledge of which guilds and players are good, or which ones aren't playing, or which ones are using a smurf or have disbanded they have a huge advantage over their PVE counterparts at making accurate picks.
This has been a huge whine thread filled with biased self-serving posts from the beginning. The ones that really irritate me though are the ones that say "it's all the pve players". Your buddy Martin wrote one of those. Go back and re-read this thread from the beginning. After you've seen all the exaggerations, assumptions, out-right-untruths and flip-flops that Martin has done thoughout this thread you may come to the same conclusion I have. His posts are biased and self-serving and though they may fool the average 10th grader most people can see right thru them. Martin wants exclusive pets and shinies and was doing ok until XTH predictions started making other players wealthy too. In one of his posts he talks about only wanting a level playing field. I'll offer one.

Eliminate XTH entirely. Give everyone in GW a rank12 Zaishen title. Increase the amount of gold dropped by 150%. We're all level.

Martin Alvito · Apr 10, 2009, 02:37 AM // 02:37

Oof wall of text. Punctuation and paragraphs are hot. You should try them.

PvPers generate a lot more than 67,000 keys per month; remember, I haven't tried to estimate what results from normal play. I'd need some estimate of player activity per hour to do that, and I haven't got one. Back of the envelope guess is 500k keys or so, against 3.5 million keys from XTH per zweistein. (You think that number's BS? It's 175,000 accounts at 20 keys per account. Seems reasonable to me. But OK, it's a baseless number. Then PROVE IT.)

You do realize that the reason that zkeys increased in value at XTH's release is that they introduced a title track and an emote at the same time, right? It's reasonable to infer that if zkeys were 8 times as scarce they'd be worth more.

Flip-flops? Sometimes I'm wrong. That's why we discuss stuff, right?

Wants stuff? I could buy one of almost every item in the game except the REALLY old school stuff (unconditionals) if I really wanted to. If I wanted an unded Vizu, Shiro'ken, Zhed, Ghostly, Polar, etc...I could buy them. All. Right now.

But I don't. Tends to reveal that I don't want them, amirite?

My thesis is simple: most of you are getting screwed by XTH but are too stupid to realize it. Unless you own a pile of accounts or are absolutely epic fail at this game but somehow manage to submit decent predictions, you're losing instead of winning. Prices on your PvE-er drops get depressed by the influx of items; prices on stuff you want to buy increase. Prices for zkeys get depressed by the influx of zkeys.

The guys who are winning are the guys who buy accounts for zkeys, and the guys who profit off the people who buy accounts.

We can't observe the alternate reality world where XTH was never put in, but we can infer what would have happened there on the basis of certain data that we do have.

But go ahead, whine about how it's self-serving for someone to suggest that free stuff, distributed unevenly, is a bad idea. Launch baseless personal attacks if you want. Complain about how I hate the PvE-ers while supporting the contention that you're getting screwed as a PvE-er by XTH (since you don't know who to pick and get fewer points as a result). Whatever.

go cubs · Apr 10, 2009, 03:27 AM // 03:27

Ok so i was in AD1 Pre and saw Regina so i asked about XTH...(Hi Regina if your reading this...Hope you dont mind :0)

Here is her Response

Quote:

XTH will not be removed. We're working on back end improvements though.

Sooo...Im guessing that means they will lower the amount of points we will get or give different rewards for the predictions.../sigh

Here is the screen shot of it

Michman · Apr 10, 2009, 05:26 AM // 05:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

My thesis is simple: most of you are getting screwed by XTH but are too stupid to realize it. Unless you own a pile of accounts or are absolutely epic fail at this game but somehow manage to submit decent predictions, you're losing instead of winning. Prices on your PvE-er drops get depressed by the influx of items; prices on stuff you want to buy increase. Prices for zkeys get depressed by the influx of zkeys.

But your thesis is wrong. And you would think you might consider that when person after person says zkeys have made it affordable for them to buy armor/weapons, fill up their hall of monuments, work on their titles, etc. But instead you point to the drop in prices of items/inscriptions and blame it on XTH when that stuff has been around for over 2 1/2 years now. Does XTH contribute to prices dropping? Sure. But in case you haven't noticed since EotN came out there's been a rather effect farm called raptors that during events becomes a sight to behold. And since events aren't just a once a month thing like XTH predictions but 3 days, 4 days, a week or more, I'd be willing to bet raptor farming and time have a lot more affect on prices than XTH could ever do. Prices for zkeys get depressed for 2 days a month, update Thursday and black Friday. Like ecto they waver +/- 800g but their not crashing and with thousands of people working on the z title and filling their hall of monuments plus all the other titles their not likely to any time soon.

Ultima pyromancer · Apr 10, 2009, 04:24 PM // 16:24

I think the problem with the Z chest is simple. It was implemented for pvp players to be rewarded.. Aparantly. But we all know it was intended as a gold sink. Its no longer a gold sink since you dont need to spend gold to open it... so why is it here? :S

$0.02

Martin Alvito · Apr 10, 2009, 06:15 PM // 18:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michman

But your thesis is wrong. And you would think you might consider that when person after person says zkeys have made it affordable for them to buy armor/weapons, fill up their hall of monuments, work on their titles, etc.

So what? The question isn't what happened. The question is what WOULD have happened without XTH. You're discussing a player who would have gotten a lot more value out of the zkeys he won, and that would have more money in his box now than he presently does. So XTH hurts him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michman

But instead you point to the drop in prices of items/inscriptions and blame it on XTH when that stuff has been around for over 2 1/2 years now.

Sure, but those markets had stabilized with consistent prices, since the inscription system had been around for a year and a half. All else equal, prices should have remained constant.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michman

Does XTH contribute to prices dropping? Sure. But in case you haven't noticed since EotN came out there's been a rather effect farm called raptors that during events becomes a sight to behold.

Keg farming's more efficient. I'm stunned that keg farming and raptor farming weren't nerfed into the ground long ago. But there's a key difference. The event items aren't used as trade markers. So no gold, zkeys, armbraces or ectos are introduced to the system via event farming. The net result is that the event items become cheaper, because the supply increases. At the end of the day, it's a wash for the farmer (more goodies but lower prices) and it's a boon for the player that uses the items, so it's just not a big deal.

moriz · Apr 10, 2009, 09:02 PM // 21:02

you can never fully predict what WOULD've happened, so let's not even go there. i believe my lolcats are pretty clear about that.

and really, i'll probably get more out of my zkeys from pvp play if XTH doesn't exist. but it is counteracted by the fact that i only have the time (and inclination) to seriously pvp 4 mouths out of a year, and restrictions on what zkeys can actually climb to. personally, i doubt the GW playerbase can afford to pay the 40k/key or so to make it worthwhile. it would max out at around 10k, which is not enough compared to what we have now.

in the end, having the XTH is better for me overall, and probably true for a great number of player. gold is shifted around so that everyone can buy more than the very basic items, everyone's probably a little happier as a result. regina posting about XTH proves that anet is looking to make the system less abusive, which would also benefit everyone. as such, there's really no need to remove XTH.